COVID-19 Weekly Update, December 15, 2020
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Transcript of Dr. Good's COVID-19 Weekly Update, December 15, 2020
Hello. I'm Michael Good, CEO of University of Utah Health, presenting the COVID-19 Update for December 15, 2020. Here, we see the new cases and daily deaths across the nation. We are beginning to see that, still, the number of new cases is at a very high level: over 200,000 cases a day, but the seven-day trend shows a leveling off. Similarly, the number of new deaths from coronavirus in our country is at very high levels. But again, the curve beginning to show signs of leveling off. Certainly not this extremely rapid increase that we've seen since the beginning of December.
Here in the State of Utah our new case trend is actually finally trending down. The number of new cases each day peaked back here a little bit before Thanksgiving, came down over Thanksgiving, came back up after the Thanksgiving long weekend. But in the early part of December here, we've seen fewer and fewer new cases each day of coronavirus. The deaths from coronavirus in the State of Utah continue to rise. We've talked before about the new cases. First, the change whether going up or down. We see it first in the cases, then in the hospitalizations, then in the deaths. So we have these time lags that we're still watching. Unfortunately, deaths from coronavirus in the state are still rising.
But with the decreasing number of new cases each day, we finally have seen the number of active cases in our state first level off and then hopefully this is the beginning of the down trend. For the last few weeks we've been at right about one in 50 Utahns with an active infection, and that decreased slightly to about one in 57 since our last report a week ago. So again, still at a very high level. But it's finally stopped rising, leveled off a bit, and maybe even showing some signs of coming down.
Thank you to Dr. Zhang and Dr. Samore. This is the reproductive number, each individual with the coronavirus infection-- how many individuals do they spread the infection to? And you can see this period during October and November, heading into December, where each individual was infecting more than one other individual. For the last few weeks we've seen that get pretty close to one. In fact, if you look at the blow-up inset in the top, we're actually now below one for the past week or so. That means each individual with the coronavirus infection spreads it to less than one individual.
That's why we see the infection curve and the active infection curve leveling off and in fact starting to come down. Very encouraging signs. This is the percent of tests that are positive. Several weeks ago, we crossed 25 percent, so one out of four or more tests coming back positive for coronavirus. We peeked a little over a week ago, and now for the last week hopefully some signs that the number, the positive percentage rate, hopefully trending down. We've seen this before during this period only to turn around and head back up. Last week, positive decline in the number of positive tests. We'll keep watching and hope that this trend is sustained.
This is the chart with a lot of information. Over here the gray and yellow bars are the number of positive tests. You can see we got over here where we were over 3,000 approaching 3,500 or more tests a day coming back positive. As with the other charts we see that starting to decline. That same pattern of heading into Thanksgiving increasing, a little bit of a reprieve over the Thanksgiving holiday, a rebound after the holiday. But over the last week or so again coming down. We've also finally seen a plateauing of the number of Utahns in a hospital in the state with the coronavirus infection. That's leveled off just a little bit under 600, maybe coming down a little bit.
Unfortunately, we're still seeing a large number, over 200 Utahns, in an ICU requiring intensive care for their COVID-19. That still continues to increase, which is worrisome because in many hospitals and quite frankly across the state, our ICU capacity is very strained right now. The number of new hospital admissions each day is trending down. This is a good trend. Fewer people being admitted each day. Now, the ones that are being admitted, more of them are going into ICUs, more severe cases of COVID-19. But at least some of these trends which have been increasing at just accelerating rates over the past few weeks, finally in this past week, starting to plateau or in many cases starting to come down a little bit.
The same is true here at University of Utah Hospital. We actually last week set a record. We had 21 admissions to our hospital in a single day, and that really, really filled up our hospital. Fortunately, in the days that followed we've had fewer admissions, fewer COVID-19 patients admitted to our hospital. The hospital remains quite full. You can see here our census hitting 80. And if you include some of the patients who have had COVID, but are no longer infectious but continuing to require hospital care, in some cases intensive care from the complications of their infection with coronavirus, this number is actually closer to 90.
Our healthcare teams here at University of Utah Hospital are just doing a phenomenal job taking care of some very ill patients, and nearly 100 of them if you count both those with the active infection and those still dealing with the complications from their COVID infection. Peaked here, the active infections around 80, and again, with these recent days where we've had fewer admissions coming back a little bit. Again, the lower-right chart shows our total census, the medical ward, and the red line is the patients in the ICU. So similar trends as we've seen, but hopefully beginning to level off a little bit, although not as much here at the University of Utah Hospital as we've seen across the state.
The university now has completed its fall semester with very few individuals on campus. We've seen the seven-day rolling average of new COVID-19 cases in our 62,000-strong University of Utah community move from the 30s down to the 20s. Now approximately, as you see, 11 in a day, and some days such as this report with very few new reported cases.
Today is a historic day here in the State of Utah and at University of Utah Health. We administered our first COVID vaccines to a number of our care team members. The first that received the vaccine are those that care for COVID patients, including our nurses, our respiratory therapists, our doctors, our environmental service workers, our unit clerks, and others who are on the front lines and have just done a tremendous job taking care of coronavirus patients. So our vaccination program has begun. In the coming days we will ramp up as we receive the vaccine, and our teams begin to go through the processes of thawing the vaccine, preparing it for administration, administering it, and tracking and following the individuals who receive it to make sure they get their second dose two-and-a-half to three weeks later.
So hopefully this is the beginning of the end. The first coronavirus vaccinations being administered here at the University of Utah Health. Again, a vaccination program that's been in preparation for almost two months now, now rolling out with skill and professional expertise. While we accelerate the vaccination program I just want to remind everybody, we need to continue to mask, to wash hands, to keep physical distance, to stay away from others when we feel ill at all. The vaccine is new.
It does take several weeks for immunity to build in an individual. The vaccine is proving to be very effective, 95 percent in the Phase III clinical trials. But there's still a lot we don't know. We don't know if somebody who's vaccinated encounters the virus, it appears they will not get COVID-19, the disease, the illness caused by the coronavirus, but we don't know if that individual could be a carrier and still transmit it to others. So until we get a broad aspect, broad sectors of our population, of our community vaccinated, we need to continue these important skills.
So please continue to wear a face mask any time you're around others, wash hands, sanitize hands frequently, keep the physical distance, and stay away from others when ill. Again, hopefully today in the State of Utah and at the University of Utah Health today marks the beginning of the end as we vaccinate the first healthcare workers, and in ensuing days and weeks, hundreds and soon thousands of individuals receiving the vaccine. We'll be back next week to give you an update, and hope that these encouraging trends that we're seeing this week continue. Have a good week.
